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CLC Blog
Jack Fonseca CLC, Project Manager

How Dalton McGuinty will decimate the Liberal Party

Question:  Why is Dalton McGuinty the equivalent of Paul Martin, Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, rolled up into one? 

Answer: Because the Leader of Ontario’s Liberals is walking his party off the same plank to political extinction that took his federal cousins from “natural governing party” to the humiliating status of “third place losers” in the 2011 election.

One can trace the demise of the federal Liberals between 2005 - 2011, to their position on social issues, which increasingly put the Liberals outside the mainstream of Canadian values, and painted them as “extreme”.  This was felt in particular amongst the traditionally loyal voting blocs of Catholics and visible minorities. A significant defection amongst Evangelical Christians also occurred.

Successive Liberal leaders made their party look out of touch, even “radical”, on issues like homosexual marriage (Martin 2005), taxing the air we breathe (Dion 2008), funding abortion in Africa (Ignatieff 2010), and the transsexual “bathroom bill” (Ignatieff 2010).   As they shifted to the extreme left, core voting blocs flowed to the Conservatives who then looked more aligned with their family values. 

A case in point is the Catholic vote which dropped by 38 points from 54% supporting Liberals in 2000(1), to just 16% in 2011(2). Over the years, Conservatives were the main beneficiaries of the Catholic defection. 

It’s the same story with visible minorities, most of who come from countries with strong beliefs in the traditional family, marriage and the sanctity of human life. A study of “probable voting” by visible minorities found that in 2000 Liberals had a 26 point advantage. By 2008, visible minorities were “almost as likely” to vote Conservative(3).

This shift did not occur over night but rather, over the course of a few years and successive elections.  It started when the Paul Martin Liberals abolished the true definition of marriage in 2005. It's effect in the short term was not very noticeable. Rather, it progressed over a few years, as the understanding spread within these communities that the Libs were diametrically opposed, even hostile, to their deeply held beliefs.  I call this the tsunami effect. This is why the Liberals never saw it coming. At first, the effect is not noticeable, like a disturbance far out at sea where the water still appears calm on the surface.  Even as it grows in strength and ferocity the water appears calm, until it finally slams the shore and decimates everything.  

The biased mainstream media (MSM) tries to blame this voter shift on the “sponsorship scandal” in order to protect its anti-life, anti-family agenda. Hushing up facts that are inconvenient to their worldview is not a new  tactic for the MSM.  Even Liberal MP John McKay, who was tasked with trying to regain the Catholic vote in last year’s election, conceded that the party alienated Catholics when the Paul Martin Liberals legalized gay marriage in 2005 and demonized traditional marriage supporters as “unenlightened”. (4)

Enter Dalton McGuinty, the man who wants to leave behind a legacy as “the Education Premier”.  Instead, he has inadvertently turned himself into “the Gay Premier” by trying to ram through a radical, gay-activist piece of legislation which requires the Catholic Church to violate its religious beliefs.  I’m speaking of Dalton’s proposed ‘gay rights’ legislation, known as Bill 13, the so-called Accepting Schools Act. (And yes, I know Dalton isn’t ‘gay’, but the shoe fits).

While posing as a “bullying bill”, thousands of parents have recognized that’s just a clever ruse, a euphemism designed to sneak a sexual agenda into the classroom while keeping parents blissfully unaware. At Queens Park on March 29, a parental protest against Bill 13 saw well over 50% of the participants were of Chinese, Indian, Arabic or African backgrounds.  Do you see the parallel with what happened to the federal Libs yet?

Right now, as we speak, McGuinty is sparking a similar, mass defection of Catholics, visible minorities and Evangelicals from the Liberals. I predict that if Bill 13 passes, it will decimate the Liberal Party of Ontario over the next couple of elections.  McGuinty is setting the stage to walk his party off the plank. 

I think Dalton fears this too.  On May 24th the Liberals organized a semi-secret meeting at Queen’s Park to which they invited the ethnic media. For the past several months the Chinese and Punjabi media have reported critically about Bill 13 and the concerns of parents.  At this “massaging the media” event, the Education Minister Laurel Broten,  MPP Michael Chan, and MPP Soo Wong attempted to "clarify some misunderstandings” about Bill 13. Obviously, they were hoping the ethnic media would stop reporting critically.  (By the way, are you as creeped out as I am that the State is trying to “massage” the media?)

Part of the problem for the federal Libs was that they mistook enthusiastic MSM support of their anti-life, anti-family polices for popular support amongst Canadians. I fear the same tragic mistake is happening now with Ontario’s Liberals. The biased MSM is cheering Dalton's tyrannical efforts, but Catholic parents, other faith communities and visible minorities are taking to the streets in protest across the province, virtually ignored by the MSM.  If Liberal backbenchers want to save their party, escape the coming tsunami and stand a chance of being re-elected, they need to organize a revolt within their caucus.  If they want to prevent the Liberal Party in Ontario from going the way of the Ignatieff Libs, they’ve got to stop Bill 13 themselves.

 

Footnotes:
1. Elisabeth Gidengil, Patrick Fournier, Joanna Everitt, Neil Nevitte, Andre Blais (2009) “The Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat”, p.13
2. Ipsos-Reid exit poll of 36,000 Canadians on May 2, 2011
3. Elisabeth Gidengil, Patrick Fournier, Joanna Everitt, Neil Nevitte, Andre Blais (2009) “The Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat”, p.3
4. Janice Tibetts, iPolitics, “Catholics losing faith in Liberals, but Grits praying for forgiveness”, Apr. 8, 2011
 

Comments
By: Maria
May 29, 2012 @ 3:01pm
Great article - this is no longer the Liberal Party and yes McGuinty is destroying it piece by piece.... How long will the others sit on the sidelines with tape over their mouths as our province sinks into unthinkable debt-- and dubious deals under his leadership. e.g. The EI Scandal (George Smitherman) .. questions never answered. The ORNGE scandal under Smitherman who btw was moved over to this portfolio by McGuinty when the EI one was cracked open!!
By: Maria Hardie
May 29, 2012 @ 3:48pm
All I can say is that I will continue to pray for Mr McGuinty and his Minister of Education that they will see the error of their ways. POWER is not everything!!!!
By: John Hughes
May 29, 2012 @ 8:13pm
MSM does not represent the majority of people in Ontario. If the Ontario Liberal Provincial government continues down this path come the next election Mr Hudak of the Ontario Conserative Party will form the next government with a majority. Just wait and see.
By: J Galaski
May 29, 2012 @ 9:23pm
You can lead him to water but you cannot make him drink. The people have told him and he refuses to listen! I guess he will drink up his losses at the polls!
By: Johnno
May 29, 2012 @ 9:42pm
" If Liberal backbenchers want to save their party, escape the coming tsunami and stand a chance of being re-elected..."

Stand a chance of re-election? With everything that's happened, there is no way in hell that we can ever vote for the immoral liberals again. THey need to disappear for good.

Also so long as the Conservatives want to remain silent on abortion and other moral issues, they're only the lesser of two evils.
By: B.Gots
May 30, 2012 @ 7:32am
Somehow Mr. Hudak did not come across well at all in the last provincial election. Maybe he has to move up from "Liberal lite" to a "real conservative". The Unions also have to see the light. Ontario has an immense top-heavy publically-funded bureaucracy that McGuinty has cowtoed to continuously -to get votes?
By: Ambrose
May 30, 2012 @ 9:37am
I am pessimistic and actually don't think the Liberals will be "decimated" (we're not Quebec; we don't remember), but I like your word " tyrannical".

Actually why "tyrannical"? A much more apt word here is "bullying" â
By: Bruce Burgess
May 30, 2012 @ 10:10am
Bill 13 should remove any doubts whatsoever, that the Liberals and NDP have been waging war against Christianity.

For any serious Christian to vote for either of these parties would make about much sense as a person of colour voting for David Duke.

Believe me, I'm not a fan of the PCs, but they are clearly the lesser evil.
By: Anthony Lee
May 30, 2012 @ 10:48pm
For sure he will loose at the next election. However we need a very strong plateform to tell him. Will there be a public web protest web that we can sign?
By: Eugene Perabo
May 31, 2012 @ 7:59pm
Incredible that Dalton is cramming his homosexual, anti homophobic, autocratic agenda down the throats of Provincial Liberals. Hopefully there will be an outcry of all concerned citizens who have had enough of his bullying tactics and will be a silent minority no longer.
By: mudislav
June 10, 2012 @ 1:44am
well worth the read.
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