Question: Why is Dalton McGuinty the equivalent of Paul Martin, Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, rolled up into one?
Answer: Because the Leader of Ontario’s Liberals is walking his party off the same plank to political extinction that took his federal cousins from “natural governing party” to the humiliating status of “third place losers” in the 2011 election.
One can trace the demise of the federal Liberals between 2005 - 2011, to their position on social issues, which increasingly put the Liberals outside the mainstream of Canadian values, and painted them as “extreme”. This was felt in particular amongst the traditionally loyal voting blocs of Catholics and visible minorities. A significant defection amongst Evangelical Christians also occurred.
Successive Liberal leaders made their party look out of touch, even “radical”, on issues like homosexual marriage (Martin 2005), taxing the air we breathe (Dion 2008), funding abortion in Africa (Ignatieff 2010), and the transsexual “bathroom bill” (Ignatieff 2010). As they shifted to the extreme left, core voting blocs flowed to the Conservatives who then looked more aligned with their family values.
A case in point is the Catholic vote which dropped by 38 points from 54% supporting Liberals in 2000(1), to just 16% in 2011(2). Over the years, Conservatives were the main beneficiaries of the Catholic defection.
It’s the same story with visible minorities, most of who come from countries with strong beliefs in the traditional family, marriage and the sanctity of human life. A study of “probable voting” by visible minorities found that in 2000 Liberals had a 26 point advantage. By 2008, visible minorities were “almost as likely” to vote Conservative(3).
This shift did not occur over night but rather, over the course of a few years and successive elections. It started when the Paul Martin Liberals abolished the true definition of marriage in 2005. It's effect in the short term was not very noticeable. Rather, it progressed over a few years, as the understanding spread within these communities that the Libs were diametrically opposed, even hostile, to their deeply held beliefs. I call this the tsunami effect. This is why the Liberals never saw it coming. At first, the effect is not noticeable, like a disturbance far out at sea where the water still appears calm on the surface. Even as it grows in strength and ferocity the water appears calm, until it finally slams the shore and decimates everything.
The biased mainstream media (MSM) tries to blame this voter shift on the “sponsorship scandal” in order to protect its anti-life, anti-family agenda. Hushing up facts that are inconvenient to their worldview is not a new tactic for the MSM. Even Liberal MP John McKay, who was tasked with trying to regain the Catholic vote in last year’s election, conceded that the party alienated Catholics when the Paul Martin Liberals legalized gay marriage in 2005 and demonized traditional marriage supporters as “unenlightened”. (4)
Enter Dalton McGuinty, the man who wants to leave behind a legacy as “the Education Premier”. Instead, he has inadvertently turned himself into “the Gay Premier” by trying to ram through a radical, gay-activist piece of legislation which requires the Catholic Church to violate its religious beliefs. I’m speaking of Dalton’s proposed ‘gay rights’ legislation, known as Bill 13, the so-called Accepting Schools Act. (And yes, I know Dalton isn’t ‘gay’, but the shoe fits).
While posing as a “bullying bill”, thousands of parents have recognized that’s just a clever ruse, a euphemism designed to sneak a sexual agenda into the classroom while keeping parents blissfully unaware. At Queens Park on March 29, a parental protest against Bill 13 saw well over 50% of the participants were of Chinese, Indian, Arabic or African backgrounds. Do you see the parallel with what happened to the federal Libs yet?
Right now, as we speak, McGuinty is sparking a similar, mass defection of Catholics, visible minorities and Evangelicals from the Liberals. I predict that if Bill 13 passes, it will decimate the Liberal Party of Ontario over the next couple of elections. McGuinty is setting the stage to walk his party off the plank.
I think Dalton fears this too. On May 24th the Liberals organized a semi-secret meeting at Queen’s Park to which they invited the ethnic media. For the past several months the Chinese and Punjabi media have reported critically about Bill 13 and the concerns of parents. At this “massaging the media” event, the Education Minister Laurel Broten, MPP Michael Chan, and MPP Soo Wong attempted to "clarify some misunderstandings” about Bill 13. Obviously, they were hoping the ethnic media would stop reporting critically. (By the way, are you as creeped out as I am that the State is trying to “massage” the media?)
Part of the problem for the federal Libs was that they mistook enthusiastic MSM support of their anti-life, anti-family polices for popular support amongst Canadians. I fear the same tragic mistake is happening now with Ontario’s Liberals. The biased MSM is cheering Dalton's tyrannical efforts, but Catholic parents, other faith communities and visible minorities are taking to the streets in protest across the province, virtually ignored by the MSM. If Liberal backbenchers want to save their party, escape the coming tsunami and stand a chance of being re-elected, they need to organize a revolt within their caucus. If they want to prevent the Liberal Party in Ontario from going the way of the Ignatieff Libs, they’ve got to stop Bill 13 themselves.
1. Elisabeth Gidengil, Patrick Fournier, Joanna Everitt, Neil Nevitte, Andre Blais (2009) “The Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat”, p.13
2. Ipsos-Reid exit poll of 36,000 Canadians on May 2, 2011
3. Elisabeth Gidengil, Patrick Fournier, Joanna Everitt, Neil Nevitte, Andre Blais (2009) “The Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat”, p.3
4. Janice Tibetts, iPolitics, “Catholics losing faith in Liberals, but Grits praying for forgiveness”, Apr. 8, 2011