Results from the Niagara West-Glanbrook and Ottawa-Vanier byelections
Two closely-watched by-elections were held on November 17th. In Niagara West-Glanbrook, the 19-year-old Sam Oosterhoff made history as the youngest person in Ontario to ever become an MPP. In Ottawa-Vanier, the Patrick Brown PCs were crushed by a landslide Liberal victory.
There are several conclusions and predictions that one can draw from the by-election results.
Decisive social conservative victory in Niagara West-Glanbrook
In Niagara West-Glanbrook, Sam Oosterhoff ran as an unapologetic pro-life and pro-family politician. The result was the highest vote percentage since at least the past 5 elections, going back to 2003.
At 54% of the popular vote, the famously pro-life/pro-family Oosterhoff increased the PC win margin by more than 12 percentage points over the previous election in 2014 where Tim Hudak got only 41.8%. That represents a dramatic 28% increase.
CLC's Ontario President, Mary Ellen Douglas, stated: "It's very impressive that Sam was able to increase the PC win margin so substantially, in the face of a relentless smear campaign by the Liberal Party and the liberal media which attacked his Christian beliefs, his opposition to Liberal sex ed, and even the fact that he was home-schooled".
After the election, CLC Vice President, Jeff Gunnarson said that: “What this teaches us, is that socially conservative politicians can win elections by being unapologetic about their pro-life and pro-family beliefs”. Gunnarson added: “Throughout the campaign, Sam did precisely the right thing by standing on his principles when attacked by the biased liberal media”.
Jack Fonseca, CLC’s Senior Political Strategist concurred, commenting that: “Too many Conservative politicians simply don't understand the importance of standing on principle. Instead they turn tail and run as soon as they feel the slightest pressure from liberals”.
Fonseca continued: “And as a result, these weak Conservatives end up being perceived as lacking in integrity and credibility, not only by the natural so-con base of the Party, but also by the mushy middle type of voter who doesn't care about moral issues one way or another, and who just wants to vote for the person that seems the most honest and principled”.
Gunnarson argued that the dramatic spike in PC fortunes achieved by Oosterhoff suggests that being a social conservative who can tap into "values voters" might actually offer a significant political advantage. It also shows that opposing Kathleen Wynne's radical sex curriculum was a winning strategy for Niagara West-Glanbrook.
After Brown’s quadruple sex ed flip-flop, CLC representatives went on a cross-province radio talk show circuit calling for Brown to resign or face a leadership review. The organization maintains that Oosterhoff, not Brown, is the reason that PC fortunes had such a marked improvement.
“We're certain that the people of Niagara West-Glanbrook cast their ballots for the socially-conservative Sam, not for the liberal Patrick Brown”, said Fonseca. The Campaign Life Coalition strategist added, “Voters were genuinely excited about electing someone who shared their social conservative values. The 3rd place finish of the Liberal Party was further evidence of this, and the result may be interpreted, at least in part, as punishment for the vile Christian-bashing they conducted throughout the campaign”.
Patrick Brown failure in Ottawa-Vanier
In Ottawa-Vanier, Patrick Brown ran a liberal look-alike in PC candidate Andre Marin. Like Brown, Marin was also a cheer leader for the radical sex curriculum. The result? A massive failure for the PCs and a crushing victory for the Liberals, with 48.6% casting ballots for the latter and only 29.9% for the former.
Why did he PCs take the Liberal fortress of Scarborough-Rouge River this past September, but got killed yesterday in the Liberal stronghold of Ottawa-Vanier? With Wynne’s approval rating now even lower, it should have been easier to upset a safe Liberal seat than ever before. Or at least to come close.
Gunnarson suggested that it's not beyond the realm of possibilities that Patrick Brown's duplicitous, two-faced public dealings are catching up to him. “It may be that due to his infamous flip-flopping and double-dealing, the public is now seeing him as an untrustworthy fraud, and they decided to just vote for the real Liberal instead of the pretend one”, Gunnarson commented.
Fonseca said it should be recognized that in Scarborough-Rouge River, Brown presented himself to voters as a social conservative who would repeal the unpopular sex curriculum.
“That's a stark contrast to Brown's position going into Ottawa-Vanier, where he was the controversial curriculum's #1 fan”, Fonseca said. “I don't think this difference should be ignored by analysts who are trying to figure out why the PC's got trounced in round 2 of the rematch in Liberal-fortress-land”, he added.
Anti-Liberal-sex-ed candidates moved the cause forward
Two candidates ran in Ottawa-Vanier on the issue of repealing Kathleen Wynne’s age-inappropriate sex curriculum for elementary schools. Elizabeth de Viel Castel ran for the brand new, Stop the New Sex Ed Agenda Party. Stephanie McEvoy ran for the Canadian Constituents Party.
Speaking about the anti-Wynne-sex-ed candidates, Douglas said: "We are very pleased that these parental rights advocates had a respectable showing of approximately 1.6% of the popular vote in Ottawa-Vanier".
Douglas added: "That's not a bad showing for unknown candidates who only started running during the last half of the race". Had it been a close race, CLC's Ontario President argued, their combined 476 votes could well have been enough to cause the PC candidate to lose – a strategic goal for this by-election.
CLC did not expect Elizabeth or Stephanie to win, but they did accomplish their main objectives of:
a) making parental rights a key issue in this election, and
b) exposing Patrick Brown’s betrayal of children and parents.
CLC is grateful to both of these candidates for keeping the parental rights cause moving forward. It is especially grateful to Queenie Yu for having created the STOP THE NEW SEX ED AGENDA PARTY, which provides an invaluable protest vote.
CLC hopes that more concerned citizens will approach the new Party to run in future by-elections where the PC candidate is hostile to parental rights, and even in strategic ridings during the 2018 general election, should the PCs hang onto this terrible policy of cheerleading Kathleen Wynne's sex program.